Hawai'i Weatherman

Day Zero 9/1 PM

2005-09-01T19:00:00.000-10:00

Today I shift my focus from this blog to High Surf Warning, a joint venture with Jamie Dematoff ("The Rock Warrior"). I won't abandon the blog immediately, but HSW will aggregate a whole lot more stuff and make it more available to anyone interested in "Weather, surf, and climate forecasts for Island recreation and businesses".

It is media-heavy so may take a while to load on older machines with dial-up. And there are a few typos and layout issues that need more attention, but our guy busted his okole and we still missed our deadline. Check it out and let us know what you think. I would greatly appreciate your feedback.

Hawaiian Time 9/1 PM

2005-09-01T14:27:00.000-10:00

Well, 1:00 PM has come and gone, but the news will be posted before long. Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: "Every takes longer and costs more".

Special Note 9/1 AM

2005-09-01T02:32:00.000-10:00

Check back this afternoon sometime after 1:oo PM for a special note that relates to "day zero".

Late Update 8/31 PM

2005-08-31T23:41:00.000-10:00

There are scattered showers upstream in moderate trades. They should diminish overnight, but it looks like they will increase again late Thurs

Buoys are dark because of Katrina. I expect a continued small S'ly background, with bigger S'ly swell early next week; nothing big just better than recently.

Brief Da Kine 8/31 AM

2005-08-31T04:02:00.000-10:00

Normal trades are back after a brief lull. There are minor isolated showers upstream; skies should be mostly sunny Wed. Trades will increase late this weekend for next week.

Buoys still dark at this hour for some reason. There is a moderate, narrow storm E of NZ and well-directed towards the Islands that should cause a head high + swell ~ Tues, dropping late next week, but reinforced by a smaller S'ly background the weekend of 9/10.

Nabi (below) is actually headed for Kyushu.

Talim and Nabi 8/31 AM

2005-08-31T03:48:00.000-10:00

Two typhoons threaten Taiwan/China.

Why We Fought WWII 8/31 AM

2005-08-31T03:25:00.000-10:00

Arbeit Macht Frei!! (stolen from Reuters)

German Environment Minister blames Katrina on
US and Global Warming. Robt. Kennedy, Jr., agrees,
proving that brains are inversely proportional to breeding.

Brief Da Kine 8/30 AM

2005-08-30T03:54:00.000-10:00

Local weather is tilting back to light trades with a few isolated showers in E'ly trades. Some lingering afternoon convection is likely pushed to the far leeward sides of islands and at E'ly exposures to upstream plumes. More normal trades will become more established through the week.

A weak SSW'ly background should keep S'ly exposures longboardble through the week. A better-organized storm is getting organized E of NZ which would bring a bigger S swell next week, but it isn't really all that big a deal.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/29 AM

2005-08-29T03:36:00.000-10:00

Local winds are trendng light E'ly/SE'ly with some embedded scattered showers. Looks a lot like Sun even with a different wind. Some isolated convective afternoon showers and seabreezes. Trades slowly returning Tues.

There were a couple of very marginal bumps from the NW on the horizon but too small to bother with. S'ly swell is small and changing direction. All buoys are dark at this hour for some reason. I expect a long-boardable background from the SSW this week. Maybe something better next week.

There is a likely impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Islands. Oil futures are expected to jump 5% today because of a supply shock on production in the Gulf. Gas prices could go up another 5 %. Gas Cap, Shmash Cap.

Brief Da Kine 8/28 AM

2005-08-28T04:01:00.000-10:00

Winds are calm leading to the possilility of afternoon convective showers and seabreezes on Sun. The S swell is fading slowly.

Weather looks good for the Little League Championship in Williamsport, PA Sun: W O'ahu v. Curacao.

Hurricane Katrina is a Cat 5, and looks like Camille of several decades ago. The Big Easy is in big trouble.

Really Manini Da Kine 8/27 PM

2005-08-27T17:56:00.000-10:00

Trades continue to slow, making afternoon convection and seabreezes a possiblility for Sun/Mon. Fading S swell.

Manini Da Kine 8/26 PM

2005-08-26T18:25:00.000-10:00

Mostly fair and dry tonight with little upstream cloudiness and slowing trades. Little change in my last update.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/26 AM

2005-08-26T04:48:00.000-10:00

Trades are slowing down and it looks like they will be variable over the weekend - even briefly S'ly Mon. Moderate trades will return on Tues. During this down time, afternoon convective showers become more likely, along with afternoon seabreezes. We'll play it by ear. At this moment, there are scattered clouds upstream that look mostly dry.

There apppears to be a new tropical depression forming S of Baja CA. It may be short-loved.

Katrina is on the way to a Cat 2-3 hurricane making landfall in the FL panhandle late Sun.

There are minor bumps due from the N and NW early next week, but barely worth mentioning.

A new S'ly swell is registering on buoys 51oo2 and 51004. S'ly exposures should see head high + waves through much of the weekend. The SW'ly background should keep longboardable waves in the background next week. Also on the horizon is a better-organized storm E of NZ early next week, due in a week later.

"[Pat Robertson] is proof of Unintelligent Design." --Christopher Hitchens

Really Manini Da Kine 8/25 PM

2005-08-25T18:25:00.000-10:00

A few isolated showers overnight converging from the NE/E upstream. Fading trades. Overnight update.

Surf & Weather Update 8/25 AM

2005-08-25T03:59:00.000-10:00

Light trade wind showers are stacked up against most windward areas early this AM, and should clear later this AM. Trades are fading to variable for the weekend, which will tilt to an afternoon convective shower pattern with afternoon seabreezes.

A tiny bump from the NW is over the horizon for late this weekend, and a head high + bump from the N early next week.

The S'n Hemi continues to stir to life with a small S bump due this weekend, and more background swell spread out over next week from the Roaring 40s and Furious 50s. Models show the first significant S swell in months developing in our swell window next Tues, for a crunchy S swell in ~ 11-12 days.

TS Katrina is reving up just offshore from S FL. There is still a lot of divergence about the exact track and development of this storm, but I think it's safe to say that this will be a big rain event for S FL. In fact, I've noted torrential rains recently and currently in E Asia, across C'l Mexico, scattered across the Caribbean and in parts of Mid and E Europe. Lots of wide spread flooding.

Really Brief Da Kine 8/24 AM

2005-08-24T06:48:00.000-10:00

Broken clouds upsteam of all islands are probably dry with a few isolated showers that could pop up later today and this evening in moderate trades. Fading N/S swell.

Brief Tropical Cyclone Update 8/23 PM

2005-08-23T23:55:00.000-10:00

While there's zero impact for the Islands, there is Tropical Depression 12 which has been identified in the Bahamas. There's been a lot of scattered disturbed weather throughout the Caribbean and Gulf. The current models are very undecided about the future course and development, unlike recent well-behaved systems. It could reach S FL early this weekend, then either continue into the Gulf and plague the Panhandle area again, or move up the E Coast. Whether it stays in the depression stage over FL is very uncertain, but if it follows either very divergent track it will likely strengthen when it moves offshore.

Brief Update 8/23 PM

2005-08-23T18:12:00.000-10:00

Light isolated evening showers in the trades. Winds will reach a minor peak Wed, then fade slightly. We are in the transitional period when trades get really lazy into fall. There will be minor isolated showers in these trades after nearly a week of dry weather.

There was a little peaky short-period bump today from the N/NE today which should fade overnight. (See Surf & Weather Alert 8/19 AM below.) Some of these marginal swells are "too small to call".

The small S bump is also fading, but we expect more by the weekend. The Christmas Island buoy has been dark for wave info several days, so there won't be much help there.

2005-08-22T21:52:00.000-10:00

Sunset from N Shore O'ahu 8/21/05--Scott Hartvigsen

Manini Da Kine 8/22 PM

2005-08-22T17:32:00.000-10:00

Skies upstream continue mostly clear with a few broken clouds upstream of the Big Island. Light trades will slowly increase with a slight increase in trade wind showers ~ midweek, but still manini by any standard.

The small S swell will fade slightly, but there are a couple of small bumps on the horizon. Hopefully, the S'n Hemi will come alive for a late 2nd Act this fall, as it often does when we have a good spring and crummy summer.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/22 AM

2005-08-22T02:01:00.000-10:00

Light trades will continue and slowly return to moderate speeds at midweek. Local weather looks uneventful; postcard weather for the next few days.

Hurricane Hilary is churning away SW of Baja and near its peak. Big surf there at S'ly exposures. It is expected to wander WNW and fade, with no effect on our windward windwaves. Little swell for CA from Hilary and only minor waves late this week. One of the main models shows another TS following Hilary late this week. It looks like the tropical activity has shifted to the E Pac at least briefly. GIFS shows another tropical cyclone in the mid Atlantic in a few days with no threat to land.

Locally there should be a small head high + bump at S'ly exposures late Mon, with more very small waves late this week and weekend. A weak front N of the Islands is too weak to generate measurable swell action in the Islands.

2005-08-21T21:14:00.000-10:00

Sunset off Kaena Point 8/21/05 --Scott Hartvigsen

Brief Update 8/20 PM

2005-08-20T18:42:00.000-10:00

Beach weather through Sun. A few isolated sprinkles in the trades, which are weakening.

Small pulse of S'ly swell beginning to show at the Christmas Island buoy which should increase the background at S'ly exposures Mon.

Hurricane Hilary S of Baja CA is forecast to peak Mon as a Cat 1 on a NW'ly track, then fade rapidly. No effect for the Islands. Little or no effect on CA and what there is will be next weekend. Baja should be feeling it early this week.

Global Cooling 8/20 AM

2005-08-20T03:52:00.000-10:00

Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world

Hurricane Futures 8/20 AM

2005-08-20T03:38:00.000-10:00

Bet on hurricanes with Mahem. Bet on that and a lot of other stuff.

Really Brief Da Kine 8/19 PM

2005-08-19T18:00:00.000-10:00

A few light sprinkles remain immediately upstream trailing the remnants of ex TS Fernanda. Otherwise, tonight should be fair and dry and Sat looks like beach weather. Moderate trades fading this weekend.

It's Never too Late to Lead 8/18 AM

2005-08-19T02:58:00.000-10:00

Noted climatologists Sens John McCain and Hilary Clinton inspect the melting parts of the N'n Hemisphere. It is a well-kept secret that these political luminaries have spent thousands of hours pursuing advanced degrees in the hard sciences, including advanced calculus, partial differential equations, computer modeling involving multi-variate regression analysis, multivariate statistical inference, as well as the foundations of inductive and deductive logic. They have also made impressive anonymous contributions to the philosophy of science and the "empirical method".

Surf & Weather Alert 8/19 AM

2005-08-19T02:42:00.000-10:00

Light showers are approaching the windward Big Island related to the remnants of TS Fernanda (below). The cloud pattern is a weak "screaming eagle" - more like a chirping pigeon. Windward showers are also likely to pop up in other areas as the center of the disturbance passes W, S of the Big Island. This is typical behavior.

Trades will fall off to light and variable later this weekend until ~ Tues, due to a minor low/front forming N of the Islands. Another hint of seasonal change. Seabreezes and isolated afternoon showers are likely while the trades are down.

The weak storm should also brew a small N'ly bump for N'ly exposures Tues. The S'ly background is also expected to pick up slightly early next week, with another small bump later next week.

¨Haceos miel y te comerán las moscas.¨ Sancho Panza

2005-08-19T02:25:00.000-10:00

T storm flares at the center of the remnant of TS Fernanda.

Moderate showers approach the windward Big Island in association
with ex Fernanda.

Really Manini Da Kine 8/18 PM

2005-08-18T16:54:00.000-10:00

Mostly fair and dry tonight. Some showers approaching the windward side of the Big Island for Fri. Overnight update.

Brief Da Kine 8/18 AM

2005-08-18T04:05:00.000-10:00

A few AM showers mainly upstream of the Big Island. Skies look otherwise clear as often ahead of a passing disturbance, like the remnant of Fernanda which continues to move W on a track S of the Big Island. This minor system will probably cause an increase in windward showers on the Big Island and elsewhere as it passes Fri and early this weekend. Moderate trades; small S shore waves.

Really Manini Da Kine 8/17 PM

2005-08-17T18:11:00.000-10:00

Clear skies overnight. Minor isolated showers mainly upstream of Kaua'i and the Big Island. The remnants of TS Fernanda are still drifting W with some models showing showers for windward sides, mainly the Big Island for Fri and over the weekend.

Barely surfable anklesnappers for S exposures.

Really Manini Da Kine 8/16 PM

2005-08-16T18:18:00.000-10:00

Skies upstream of the N'n islnds have some broken clouds, but I suspect they will do a disappearing act before they reach us, so it looks like minimal to no overnight precipitation. Continued moderate trades.

2005-08-16T18:13:00.000-10:00

Ex TS Fernanda moving slowly W in the trades.

This weak system may cause some windward showers late Fri and itno
the weekend.

Brief Update 8/16 AM

2005-08-16T03:46:00.000-10:00

Broken clouds immediately upstream of all islands look mostly dry at this point. Should be mostly sunny on leeward sides. Moderate trades.

The remnants of Hurricane Fernanda are embedded upstream, making their way slowly towards the Islands. Most of the related clouds will pass south of the Big Island ~ Sat, with a few showers possible on windward sides.

The S Hemi is stirring slightly, just in time for fall. We should see a small bump in the S'ly background early next week, with more small swell action to follow. IOW, looks better than it's been.

Really Brief Da Kine 8/15 PM

2005-08-15T17:27:00.000-10:00

A few showers immediately upstream of all windward sides for evening. Moderate/breezy trades. Minor N/S swell fading.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/15 AM

2005-08-15T02:27:00.000-10:00

Trades winds will increase slightly this week according to the ensemble forecast and decrease by next weekend. Currently, there are broken to overcast skies along or just ustream of all windward sides. These clouds look mostly dry and should burn off to a partly to mostly sunny day for all islands. There will be minor islolated trade wind showers this week.

Farther upstream, TS Fernanda is fading to nothing. The remnants are likely to pass S of the Big Island late next weekend with little or no local effect.

A tiny swell from the N/NE is lurking out there somewhere, but it is really small. A tiny background of barely surfable S swell is also registering on our local S buoys. Body whompers along windward exosures.

Brief Da Kine 8/14 AM

2005-08-14T03:54:00.000-10:00

Little change in local weather. A very slight increase in upstream clouds for a few isolated showers. Moderate trades building slightly.

There is no hint of new N/NE swell yet on buoy 51001, but that doesn't mean much because that buoy isn't well situated to catch it. This possible swell would be small at anyrate, and may show up as late as Mon.

Storm action E of NZ isn't looking very promising either.

"IN AMERICA, WE have a two-party system," a Republican congressional staffer is supposed to have told a visiting group of Russian legislators some years ago. "There is the stupid party. And there is the evil party. I am proud to be a member of the stupid party." He added: "Periodically, the two parties get together and do something that is both stupid and evil. This is called-bipartisanship." --Peter Brimelow

Really Brief Update 8/13 PM

2005-08-13T17:40:00.000-10:00

A few minor isolated showers upstream for late tonight and Sun AM. Light-moderate trades. I'll check buoy 51001 overnight for a possible late Sun N/NE bump at those exposures.

News You Can Use 8/13 AM

2005-08-13T04:50:00.000-10:00

See a surfing mouse on the Gold Coast, then watch Global Cooling descend on Victoria and Tasmania with the biggest snowfall in ~ 50 years.

Go here, then click on "Surfing mice hang ten" and "Freak weather hits southeast".

Really Brief Da Kine 8/12 PM

2005-08-12T18:01:00.000-10:00

Little change in the current conditions for overnight. Trades will slowly creep up through mid week with a few showers. There are minor showers upstream of the S'n islands for overnight, but they will probably fade.

Small N/NE bump late this weekend, early next week. Slowly increasing windwaves at windward exposures.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/12 AM

2005-08-12T02:57:00.000-10:00

Light trades are bottoming out and will increase slowly over the weekend until midweek but just to moderate levels. Basically, it looks like the trade wind regime of summer is beginning to feel the approach of fall. With light trades Fri, there could be a little afternoon convection over far leeward sides of islands.

In the E Pac, Hurricane Fernanda and TS Greg are fading. In the Atlantic, Irene will probably veer away from the E Coast as the 15 day model predicted.

There was a sneaker swell from the W yesterday, barely above background. It was on buoy 51001 but extreme small W (this was even WSW) ain't worth worrying about. It's almost pau. I expect another knee-slapper from the N/NE late this weekend.

The fetch window E of NZ will stir to life early next week, breaking the flat spell the following week along S'ly exposures.

Sky Watch 8/11 PM

2005-08-11T17:45:00.000-10:00

The Perseid Meteor Shower will peak overnight. It should peak before midnight in the Islands. Visible looking to the NE; unusually clear skies tonight for the view.

Really Brief Update 8/11 PM

2005-08-11T15:33:00.001-10:00

Island skies look particularly dry for tonight. There may be a hint of convection/plumes Fri PM as mentioned below, but mostly uneventful weather and light/moderate trades.

Brief Da Kine 8/11 AM

2005-08-11T02:35:00.000-10:00

Scattered showers lie just upstream of all islands with a break in the Alenuihaha Channel. These early AM trade showers should give way to a sunny AM most areas, but with fading trades, a weak convective or afternoon shower pattern is likely to develope over far leeward sides, and also E'n areas exposed to plumes of windward islands.

The small N'ly swell is marginal but likely for late this weekend.

Moderate storm activity in our S'ly window is expected by both NOGAPS and GIFS for early next week, bringing some minor relief to the S'ly surf drought ~ 8/21 - 22.

Hurricane Fernanda will fizzle shortly far E of the Islands. TS Irene in the Atlantic is a conundrum but my consesus take is that it will not amount to much for the Mainland US.

Brief Update 8/10 PM

2005-08-10T18:04:00.000-10:00

Uneventful trade wind weather for the next few days. Immediately upstream some minor isolated overnight showers. Trades slowing until the weekend.

The small N swell mentioned recently is looking more "iffy". TS Fernanda far to the E is still expected to plod along and fizzle with no effect on local windwaves.

The main models are showing a modest increase in storm action early next week favorable for a small swell in about 10 days for S'ly exposures.

Brief Update 8/9 PM

2005-08-09T18:02:00.000-10:00

Minimal upstream showers until at least after midnight. Moderate trades. Afternoon convection has returned to the Kona side of the Big Island, always a tricky call. With the upper level jet in place, the next couple of days should be similiar.

TS Fernanda is located SSW of Baja CA and expected to move slowly NNW, strengthen some, then fade. Marginal at best for any windward swell action.

Tentative small N/NE swell still on tap.

Brief Da Kine 8/9 AM

2005-08-09T03:30:00.000-10:00

Patches of low level clouds - mostly stable by themselves - are approaching slowly in the upstream trades. The windward mountain barrier and the opposing upper level W'lies (subtropical jet, TUTT, whatever), tend to trap this stuff on windward sides, causing cloudy conditions and drizzle.

There are also brief, isolated T showers or maybe just cumuli nimbi firing in the leeward plumes of some islands. A little tricky and unpredictable but generally fair and sunny on leeward sides. Moderate trades slowly fading until weekend.

A small N/NE swell is likely for late this weekend.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/8 AM

2005-08-08T03:53:00.000-10:00

Although skies have cleared considerably on the Big Island, the lastest satellite pix show T storms again forming off the Puna/Kau Coast, and creeping towards land, again. Probably won't happen, at least like the 6" accumulations that occurred over the weekend.

Moderate trades continue and will decrease to light near variable later this week. This brings up the possibility of afternoon convection when the trades fade. Right now, trades seem dry for most trade wind exposures and the week should get off to a sunny start.

There is a hint of small N'ly swell brewing again later this week, due ~ Sun. S exposures are getting flatter and flatter.

Brief Da Kine 8/7 PM

2005-08-07T18:02:00.000-10:00

The windward side of he Big Island is clearing up after a soaking of 6"+ at some locations over the last 24 hours. There are a few minor isolated showers upstream of windward Maui and in the Alenuihaha Channel. My usual update overnight for the workweek.

2005-08-07T04:16:00.000-10:00

Probable T showers over the Puna Coast and upcountry at 3:30 AM.

2005-08-07T01:23:00.000-10:00

T storms form off the Puna Coast and at the tip of Cape Kumukahi; possibly upslope from Pahoa at midnight.

Brief Da Kine 8/6 PM

2005-08-06T17:12:00.000-10:00

The shower system just upstream of the Big Island is stalled but sending light showers toward the windward side, wtih little else for the other islands. The models show this pocket of moisture lingering in place and reinforced by a similar system early next week, so the likelihood of showers affecting the windward Big Island (and maybe other windward sides) will continue for several days. No change in the wind/wave outlook.

Brief Da Kine 8/5 PM

2005-08-05T17:59:00.000-10:00

The only significant feature in local weather is the weak disturbance moving W in the trades, now SE of the Big Island. The N'n fringes of the disturbance will probably begin to affect the windward Big Island Sat, with showers from late Sat into maybe the early part of next week. Other islands will see little or no effect.

Breezy trades, diminishing next week. No new surf. Updates over the weekend as things develope.

2005-08-05T17:50:00.000-10:00

Weak tropical disturbance approaches the windward side of the Big Island.

Really Brief Da Kine 8/5 AM

2005-08-05T08:23:00.000-10:00

For what it's worth, there was a small NNW swell at N'ly exposures for Kaua'i and O'ahu yesterday with some leftovers today. See Surf & Weather Alert 8/1 AM below.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/5 AM

2005-08-05T05:19:00.000-10:00

Scattered mostly dry clouds are riding in on breezy trades. Fri should be mostly sunny. Tiny surf for it seems forever; head high windwaves.

All models are in fair agreement that a weak tropical disturbance SE of the Big Island will drift slowly W over the weekend, causing showers and possibly heavy local accumulations over the windward sides of the S'n islands from mid Sat to mid Mon. The windward Big Island is closest to the weather, especially the Puna Coast. (See mention and pix of the ITCZ in previous posts.)

The N'n islands will probably not be affected by this system and I'm not even sure it will affect the S'n islands. Trade winds will fade to light E'ly next week.

In the Atlantic, a disorganized TS is wandering near Bermuda and expected to lift out to the NE. A tropical wave that drifted off the W Coast of Africa has failed to develop. The 15 day model still shows a hurricane in the Atlantic in ~ 10-12 days but headed towards the Canadian Maritimes or even E of there.

I watched a NOAA/NWS presentation this week that had upgraded their warning of a severe Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season, based on the big start it got in July. Far be it for me to directly contradict these highly paid experts, but for years I've watched government forecasters of everything from weather to finances to national security fall for simple linear exptrapolation of apparent current trends. They almost always miss and overreact. Stock markets are particularly unkind to this mentality.

Really Brief Da Kine 8/4 PM

2005-08-04T18:15:00.000-10:00

A few minor evening showers for the windward Big Island. A few minor ones for mainly the N'n islands after midnight. Generally dry looking upstream. Breezy trades. Weekend outlook overnight.

Really Brief Da Kine 8/4 AM

2005-08-04T03:57:00.000-10:00

Here's a novel forecast: few early AM showers, mainly windward/mauka all islands. Partly to mostly sunny today with breezy trades. Tiny surf, modest windwaves.

Brief Da Kine 8/3 PM

2005-08-03T17:42:00.000-10:00

As usual, there are broken clouds upstream with a few isolated embedded showers due overnight for windward sides. More for the S'n islands than elsewhere, but not much at that. There is possible Screaming Eagle (see reference in archives) forming to the SE in the ITCZ (also below) that could cause a wet period in a few days. Moderate trades; small windwaves.

Brief Update 8/3 AM

2005-08-03T04:06:00.000-10:00

Broken, mostly dry low clouds are riding in on breezy trades for windward sides today. Head high windwaves at windward exposures.

Trends: surf drought continues. NOGAPS predicts a brief rainy period in about a week. The old 15 day MRF is showing no significant tropical cyclones in the N Hemi except for the possibility of a hurricane hitting the Canadian Maritimes after midmonth.

"La violencia no puede ser una permanente forma de vida porque siempre se vuelve contra quien la ejerce."-Lao Tse

2005-08-03T02:14:00.000-10:00

Smoke plume from Waikaloa brush fire.

Really Brief Update 8/2 PM

2005-08-02T19:08:00.000-10:00

Evening showers for the C'l/S'n islands. About midnight for Kaua'i and again for the windward Big Island. Scattered after that.

Brief Da Kine 8/2 PM

2005-08-02T04:33:00.000-10:00

Windward sides a little cloudy but mostly dry. Surf drought continues.

"From where the sun now stands
I will fight no more forever." -Chief Joseph

2005-08-02T00:22:00.000-10:00

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITTZ) stretches from Mexico to S of
the Islands.

The ITCZ is displaced far N of its usual place at 5-10 degrees N of the
Equator. This is an indication of possible development of tropical
waves, Screaming Eagles, etc.

Brief Da Kine 8/1 PM

2005-08-01T17:57:00.000-10:00

Upstream clouds have increased for all islands overnight. Most of them look dry, but there will probably be typical scattered showers overnight, not concentrated on the C'l islands like last night. Trades still moderate-breezy!

Surf & Weather Alert 8/1 AM

2005-08-01T03:03:00.000-10:00

There are minor showers just upstream of windward sides except for Kaua'i for early AM hours. Mostly stable broken clouds extend far upstream of the Big Island. Generally sunny skies should continue except for windward sides. Trades will be breezy through the week.

Barely surfable ankle snappers for S'ly exposures today. Nothing new in sight there.

There is a really weak storm moving into the Gulf of Alaska that I thought might cause a little bump at N exposures later this week. Looks too weak for even that, so windwaves will have to do.

Mini Update 7/31 PM

2005-07-31T17:16:00.000-10:00

Mostly fair and dry tonight expcept for brief showers currently along the windward Big Island and in the Moloka'i Channel headed to E O'ahu. Little elsewhere. Moderate trades.

Brief Da Kine 7/31 AM

2005-07-31T05:37:00.000-10:00

Radar shows isolated scattered AM showers upstream of mainly C'l islands. Sun should be otherwise sunny with moderate trades. Ankle snappers along S exposures.

Really Brief Update 7/30 PM

2005-07-30T13:01:00.000-10:00

Showers this evening for the C'l islands, mainly O'ahu.

Brief Da Kine 7/29 PM

2005-07-29T14:32:00.000-10:00

Normal mostly dry trade wind weather for the next few days. A few minor overnight trade wind showers. Surf as bellow.

Surf & Weather Alert 7/29 AM

2005-07-29T03:19:00.000-10:00

The wet trades over mainly the C'l/N'n islands of the last 24 hours appears to be moving a little to the S, affecting Kaua'i least and drier overall. It still looks a little wet. Trades winds will continue unbroken and moderate.

I haven't paid close attention to the S'n Hemi except to note that nothing is really happening there for the Islands. The Christmas Island buoy did show some SSW swell action Thurs, but it looks small and will probably pass us without effect.

A small NNW bump is still on tap for ~ middle of next week.

Checking the old MRF 15 day N Hemi forecast, there is no hint of tropical disturbance until mid-Aug anywhere, at least as a threat to land. That's the way it goes. A big strong start with Hurricanes Dennis and Emily and Typhoon Haitang, then...tormentus interruptus.

Brief Da Kine7/28 PM

2005-07-28T12:14:00.000-10:00

Light showers are likely to continue off and on for the windward C'l islands this afternoon, reaching Kaua'i again this afternoon.

Brief Update 7/28 AM

2005-07-28T04:05:00.000-10:00

There's a slight increase in upstream showers for all windward sides this AM. Moderate trades continue. The only hint of new swell action is a little N in about a week.

Brief Update 7/27 PM

2005-07-27T17:24:00.000-10:00

A few minor upstream showers overnight for windward/mauka areas. Moderate trades. Tiny waves.

Really Manini Update 7/27 AM

2005-07-27T03:25:00.000-10:00

A slight increase in upstream cloudiness due to a new marine layer between the Islands and the W Coast. Not a dime's difference from yesterday for local conditions. Surf drought.

Really Really Manini Update 7/26 AM

2005-07-26T05:08:00.000-10:00

Beach weather. Tiny surf.

Really Manini Da Kine 7/25 PM

2005-07-25T17:34:00.000-10:00

Very minor isolated showers upstream overnight for all islands. Moderate trades. Tiny surf.

Surf & Weather Alert 7/25 AM

2005-07-25T04:50:00.000-10:00

There is a slight increase in dry upstream cloudiness that is evaporating as it approaches. This is the driest time of year and it looks like beach weather for the week.

The only change I see in the N Pac is the beginnings of Typhoon season in the far west. Moderate trades here locally slowly fading to lighter trades during the week and next weekend.

The S swell is also fading to near flat. Knee slappers if your'e lucky. Nothing new on the horizon.

Really Brief Update 7/23 PM

2005-07-23T17:23:00.000-10:00

Even more of the same. A few minor upstream showers due overnight, least for the N'n islands. Moderate trades. Tiny S background.

Manini Da Kine 7/23 AM

2005-07-23T05:36:00.000-10:00

Morning showers upstream for most windward exposures. Early evening showers for the windward Big Island. Moderate trades and small S surf.

Manini Da Kine 7/22 PM

2005-07-22T17:26:00.000-10:00

More of the same. A few scattered showers upstream for overnight. Moderate trades. Small but surfable waves along S/E exposures.

Surf & Weather Alert 7/22 AM

2005-07-22T03:12:00.000-10:00

There are a few scattered showers immediately upstream of the C'l islands, and broken mostly dry clouds upstream of the N'n islands, especially Kaua'i. Fri should be partly to mostly sunny with continued moderate trades. Moderate trades will continue through next week.

S'ly swell is in a slight lull in the small background, and will get a small head high reinforcement Sat. Next week continues to look tiny, but maybe not flat.

Brief Update 7/21 PM

2005-07-21T19:59:00.000-10:00

Skies upstream are considerably clearer and drier than they were 24 hours ago. Moderate trades continue.

The S swell continues to fade with smaller reinforcements for the weekend. My usual Thurs update overnight.

Super Brief Update 7/21 AM

2005-07-21T09:05:00.000-10:00

AM showers will persist possibly to ~ midday, especially for O'ahu.

Really Really Manini Update 7/20 PM

2005-07-20T19:32:00.000-10:00

A few light showers upstream of mainly the C'l islands overnight.

Fading S swell.

Really Brief Da Kine 7/19 PM

2005-07-19T18:46:00.000-10:00

Mostly dry-looking trades upstream for all islands tonight. Moderate trades continue.

The fun small S swell will continue with reinforcements for at least two more days.

Brief Update 7/19 AM

2005-07-19T02:16:00.000-10:00

Trade wind clouds upstream are sliding past most windward sides and look mostly dry for this morning at least. Moderate trades. Since not much happening in our weather...

...our local S buoys are responding in a promising manner to the latest series of small SSW swells. The next few days should at least be better than the last 5 days, with overhead waves extending through midweek and beyond. Next week is looking kinda piddling again...

Brief Da Kine 7/18 PM

2005-07-18T18:15:00.000-10:00

Skies are a little cloudier today as anticipated below, but only very light insolated showers in them in moderate trades. Expect a few minor overnight showers. We'll look at the satellite pix again overnight for the Tues call.

As mentioned many times, the minor changes in the mostly steady trade wind regime have to be called on a day-to-day basis.

Looks like the S'ly swell is creeping up, although it is barely registering on our local S buoys.

Really Brief Da Kine 7/18 AM

2005-07-18T08:14:00.000-10:00

AM showers are affecting the windward sides of the S'n islands and could approach O'ahu and Kaua'i later this AM before evaporating.

Surf & Weather Alert 7/17 AM

2005-07-17T23:23:00.000-10:00

Showers continue riding in on moderate trades, mainly for the S'n islands. This week will see seasonally moderate trades and the typical trade wind showers, mostly night/morning windward/mauka. (There have been also typical afternoon convective showers over the Kona slopes; it's beyond my usual competence to predict these when they are small or isolated.)

The Christmas Island buoy continues to register a new SSW swell that should begin to show at S'ly exposures Mon afternoon. No sign yet on our local S buoys.

Brief Update 7/17 PM

2005-07-17T17:04:00.000-10:00

There are minor upstream showers for the S'n islands overnight. A few can be expected to pop up over the N'n islands but it looks dry and nearly cloudless at this point. Moderate trades.

The Christmas Island bouy continues to register new S/SSW swell so we could see that S'ly background creep up late Mon.

Hurricane Emily is about to hit Yucatan. It will be interesting to see what the interaction of land and upper lever steering currents do to this storm after it tangles with landfall. The options range from TS winds in S'n Texas (and rain) to hurricane winds on the Gulf Coast of Mexico to...not much at all. Whatever, it is expected to make a 2nd landfall overnight Tues.

Brief Update 7/17 AM

2005-07-17T03:05:00.000-10:00

Early AM showers are approaching the windward sides of the N'n islands, while late AM showers are approaching the windward S'n islands.

The Christmas Island buoy was showing a new SSW'ly swell due ~ late Mon. Not much, but should increase the background.

Haitang and Emily 7/17 AM

2005-07-17T02:55:00.000-10:00

Typhoon Haitang (left) approaches Taiwan...

...while Hurricane Emily (right) approaches Yucatan. Both
storms are in the midrange of strength but Emily is much smaller.

Really Brief Update 7/16 PM

2005-07-16T17:01:00.000-10:00

There are typical light upstream showers due overnight, mainly for the C'l/N'n islands. Moderate trades. Small S swell.

Really Brief Da Kine 7/16 AM

2005-07-16T09:20:00.000-10:00

Probably sunny all day most areas.

Brief Update 7/16 AM

2005-07-16T04:40:00.000-10:00

Showers have decreased immediately upstream but have increased further upstream. So we might see passing showers during the day, although they will tend to evaporate. Moderate trades, small S'ly surf.

Brief Da Kine 7/15 PM

2005-07-15T17:28:00.000-10:00

A slight increase in upstream showers overnight, mainly for the N'n islands. I'll check the satellite pix overnight to see what remains for Sat. Moderate trades. Small S swell background.

Surf & Weather Alert 7/15 AM

2005-07-15T04:19:00.000-10:00

This is a quick and dirty alert, but not much happening. There was a freakish isolated heavy shower that flared briefly on the leeward slopes of the Big Island in the saddle between Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. It was associated with a small upper level impulse and is an example of how tricky and impossible the weather can be.

Otherwise, just moderate trades and scattered upstream clouds, mostly dry.

The Christmas Island buoy registered a minor S'ly pulse today, just enough to keep a smaller background going this weekend. Next week looks a little better. Still small stuff.

The TransPac fleet is likely socked in by another marine layer that extends from the West Coast about half way to the Islands.

We are not afraid!

Really Brief Da Kine 7/14 PM

2005-07-14T17:43:00.000-10:00

Little change. Few isolated random showers; least for O'ahu. Moderate trades and continued slowly fading S swell until this weekend.